AI decision verification for consequential agents

Decision Intelligence for AI Agents Operating in High-Stakes Domains

Hetu is an AI decision verification platform for enterprise agents in domains where a wrong autonomous action has financial, operational, regulatory, or safety consequences. Before an agent executes, Hetu checks whether the decision is supported by deterministic evidence, causal inference, or insufficient evidence — then confidence-scores and audits it.

The model narrates computed facts. It never computes them.Every number an agent sees traces back to a deterministic rule, a fitted causal model, or an explicit refusal. The language model writes the sentence. It is not permitted to invent the finding.

Where this applies, and where it doesn't

A growing category of AI infrastructure now exists to make high-stakes AI trustworthy — some of it, elsewhere, by formalizing static rules (tax code, clinical guidelines, legal text) into machine-checkable logic and returning a formal proof. That's the right tool when the ground truth is a codified rule with exceptions.

Hetu solves a different version of the same problem: domains where the ground truth isn't a written rule at all — it's a causal pattern buried in operational data (why did this loan cohort underperform, why did this campaign's ROAS collapse) that has to be inferred, confidence-scored, and verified before an agent is allowed to act on it. Same discipline — prove it or refuse — different mechanism, because the underlying knowledge isn't formalizable text to begin with.

The signature

Most systems answer every question. Hetu's credibility comes from the ones it won't.

Pick a trigger. Watch it escalate through the tiers, hit the verification guard, and come out stamped — or stopped.

Escalation trace
TriggerTarget variable for one cohort is 14% below its 90-day baseline.
Tier 1
Rules
Deterministic WHY traversal
Traversal matched. WHY1 → concentrated in a single intake vintage · WHY2 → upstream input quality 31% vs peer 58% in that vintage · WHY3 → two named sources
The quality drop precedes the outcome gap by 60 days. n=14, above the floor.
Tier 2
Causal
Structural causal model · anomaly attribution
Not reached — Tier 1 resolved it.
Tier 3
LLM
Constrained hypothesis generation
Not reached — a conclusion was reached with evidence.
Temporal orderingMagnitudeGate validitySample floorLabel match
CONFIRMEDThe agent may act autonomously. Deterministic match, every check passed, decision type inside the proven envelope.

Node names above are the neutral ones. In a deployment they are your metrics — the graph is configuration, not code. The tiers are not a fallback chain that degrades into guessing: each has a stopping criterion written before it runs, and Tier 3 is never permitted to state a cause at all.

Architecture

Three tiers. Each one knows exactly what it is allowed to claim.

Confirmed

Deterministic rules

Every failure pattern your domain experts already understand, encoded as an explicit traversal. No statistics, no uncertainty. If the pattern matches, the answer is exact.

Traversals live in configuration. A new pattern is an insert, not a deployment.

Stops when: a metric returns null, sample size falls under the floor, or no branch matches. It never guesses past the end of the tree — and the miss is logged as the spec for the next tree.
High / Medium

Structural causal model

When no rule fits, a fitted graph attributes the anomaly across candidate causes — with bootstrap confidence intervals and a residual, not a single number.

The confounder check runs first. If a known external event overlaps the window, attribution is suppressed rather than misassigned.

Stops when: explained variance is under 70%, or the top two candidates' intervals overlap. Then it says so and hands up. It does not round its uncertainty away.
Hypothesis

Constrained LLM

The last resort, and the most restricted. It receives a structured payload — never raw data, never an open prompt — and it is forbidden from stating a root cause.

Output is at most three ranked hypotheses, each with explicit confirming and falsifying criteria.

Stops when: it cannot produce a concrete falsification test. Then it returns "insufficient context" rather than a plausible sentence. This tier should be the minority path — if it isn't, the graph is underspecified, and that's a config fix.

The verification guard

Nothing renders until it passes.

Every tier's output is checked before a human or an agent ever sees it. This is not a confidence score bolted on afterwards — it's a set of hard, auditable checks, and failing one means the conclusion is refused, not downgraded.

  • One place, not five. The guard is a shared service every tier calls, so verification logic stays auditable in one file rather than scattered as ad-hoc sanity checks.
  • Language is bound to the label. A medium-confidence result cannot be narrated as "the root cause is." The narration is regenerated until the framing matches the evidence.
  • Refusals are logged. A blocked conclusion is a first-class record. It tells you precisely where the model is weakest.
// guard.verify(conclusion) → render | refuse temporal_order cause precedes effect pass magnitude attribution ≈ observed Δ pass gate_validity no upstream fault active pass sample_floor every cited metric ≥ n FAIL label_match language ≤ evidence REFUSED a cited metric was computed on n=3, below the minimum viable floor of 5. Conclusion withheld. Cause not stated. // the agent receives the refusal, not the answer.

A wrong cause stated confidently is worse than two candidates and a test that separates them. The first sends an agent to act on a fiction. The second sends it to gather one more fact.

CheckWhat it validatesOn failure
Temporal orderingThe stated cause's timestamp precedes the stated effect's. Causes cannot postdate effects.Refuse to render. Surface both timestamps.
Magnitude consistencyThe claimed attribution, applied to the real baseline, produces an effect size within tolerance of the observed anomaly.Refuse to render. Surface the mismatch.
Gate validityThe conclusion isn't sitting downstream of an active data-integrity fault on the same entity.Suppress. Surface the upstream fault instead.
Sample-size floorEvery metric cited in the conclusion clears the minimum viable threshold.Refuse to render. Name the thin metric.
Label matchThe rendered language matches the confidence label exactly.Block at narration. Regenerate with correct framing.

AI Agent Governance

Agents don't earn autonomy by being confident. They earn it by being measured.

Hetu doesn't ask you to trust an agent on day one. It gives you an envelope — a bounded region of decision types where the system has demonstrated accuracy — and widens it only as outcomes come back. Everything outside stays gated.

01 · Bound

Constrain

A constraint framework is written for the use case: what counts as a fault, what gates what, what is never permitted. The cascade is enforced upstream of any action.

02 · Break

Circuit-break

Before execution, the decision is simulated. If the tail outcome crosses a ruin threshold, or the situation is classified as chaotic, auto-execution is blocked and a human is called.

03 · Record

Audit

An immutable log of every decision generated, approved, deferred, executed and measured: who, when, what, why, and what happened. Regulators and post-mortems read the same file.

04 · Widen

Calibrate

Measured outcomes update the causal weights and the confidence thresholds. Decision types that prove out move inside the envelope. Types that don't stay behind a gate.

Two rules survive calibration. Irreversible, fat-tailed decisions never auto-execute regardless of confidence score. And when realised outcomes fall outside the prior distribution, the regime-change detector narrows autonomy on its own — before you notice.

What you can buy

The platform. Three SKUs, one integration.

Self-serve or license. You integrate it; nobody from Hetu has to be in the room. If that's not where you are yet, see Consulting, Deployment, or Open Source instead.

API / usage-based

Verification Core

Deterministic check, causal attribution, confidence label, audit log — on every call an agent makes before it executes.

For: engineering teams shipping agentic decisions
Per-pack license

Vertical Verification Packs

Pre-seeded causal graph + gate set for one regulated decision type — lending, claims, trading, procurement.

For: risk & compliance teams in a named vertical
Per-seat / per-volume

Governance & Audit Layer

Named-approver workflows, exportable immutable record, outcome tracking against actuals. The expansion tier.

For: CRO / Compliance / Internal Audit

Pricing

A design-partner rate while we're proving this on your decisions, standard rate once we have.

Verification Core is priced on volume because that's what it costs to run — every call touches a rule engine, a fitted causal model, and a guard check. Packs and Governance are licensed per decision type and per approver, because that's the unit your risk team actually budgets against.

Verification Core
$0.02–$0.08 / verified decision

Usage-based. Volume-tiered — price per decision drops as monthly verified volume rises. No seat fees.

$2K/mo platform minimum. First 3 design partners: 50% off for 6 months for case-study rights.
Vertical Verification Pack
$5K–$15K/mo per pack

One pack = one regulated decision type (lending, claims, trading, procurement), with its own pre-seeded graph and gate set.

Priced by regulatory complexity of the vertical, not by usage.
Governance & Audit Layer
$400/named approver/mo

Approval workflows, exportable immutable record, outcome tracking. Requires Verification Core already running.

Minimum 5 approver seats. Enterprise SSO and in-VPC deployment included.
Enterprise
custom

Multiple packs, in-VPC or on-prem deployment, dedicated model-risk liaison — scoped per engagement.

Usually starts as a Consulting or Deployment engagement. See Consulting or Deployment.

Consulting, Deployment and Academy are priced separately — see Consulting or see Deployment — because they're delivered work, not metered usage. The Calibration Benchmark and the Decision Provenance Spec are free; see Open Source.

What we don't claim

We don't eliminate hallucination. We make it unable to reach the agent.

Any vendor promising a language model that never confabulates is selling the thing they cannot deliver. The architectural answer isn't a better model — it's a smaller job for the model.

  • The model never computes. Every figure originates in a rule engine, an optimiser or a fitted model. Narration is a separate, single, tightly scoped call.
  • The narrator is checked. Output containing a causal connector it wasn't given, or a number not present in its payload, is rejected and regenerated. Not warned — rejected.
  • Confidence is always displayed. Confirmed, high, medium — two candidates, or hypothesis — requires your input. The label tells a human or an agent how much weight to place on a claim before acting.
  • Accuracy is a measured number, not a promise. Root-cause accuracy is validated against a human-labelled holdout, stratified by confidence label, and reported per decision type. Results below the bar close the envelope.

Design partners

Bring the decision you don't currently let an agent make.

We work with a small number of enterprise teams building agentic systems where a wrong action is expensive. We'll map your constraint framework, seed the causal graph with your experts, and show you the first refusal — which is usually the moment people understand what this is.

Request access

FAQ

AI decision verification — common questions

What is AI decision verification?

AI decision verification checks whether an agent's proposed action is supported by deterministic evidence or causal inference before execution — and refuses when evidence is insufficient.

How is this different from AI observability or LLM guardrails?

Observability and guardrails watch prompts, policies, and outputs. Hetu verifies the decision itself: root-cause claims, confidence labels, and an audit trail a risk committee can read.

Why can't GPT, Claude or Gemini perform causal reasoning reliably?

LLMs learn statistical patterns in language rather than structural causal relationships in operational data. They can explain causality but cannot establish it with mathematical guarantees.

Why can't I just connect my database to an LLM?

Database access improves retrieval, not reasoning. Causal inference, counterfactuals, confounder detection and uncertainty estimation require dedicated mathematical models.

Does Hetu replace LLMs?

No. Hetu verifies decisions; LLMs narrate verified outputs. The model never invents the finding.

Can Hetu work with OpenAI, Claude and Gemini?

Yes. Hetu is model-agnostic and integrates with leading foundation models as a narration layer only.

Where should I start — platform, consulting, or open source?

If you already ship agentic decisions, start with the platform or a Consulting engagement on one decision. If you want to measure calibration first, run the free tools on Open Source.